described principles and methods for modeling logistics systems are meant to exclude the intuitive approach to making management decisions and make them more objective.
However, long-standing practice establishment and successful operation of logistics systems shows that it is a result of creative and intuitive activities of individuals and groups the task of constructing a complete and adequate model of the logistics system is solved effectively.
As a consequence, logistics have found wide application methods based on the use of the experience, skills and creativity management specialists and various manufacturing processes. All These methods have the common name of expert.
To implement these methods is examined appropriately selected experts. Professionals who are entrusted the examination must possess the necessary professional qualifications and to form their own independent assessment from each other and from external influences.
Examinations can be individual or group, and conducted in person or in absentia.
key question is the number of experts involved and the level of qualification, in this group. Obviously, the more attracted enough qualified people can not compensate for their lack of required skills. On the other hand, the decrease in the number of experts (in the limit of expert opinion may make one) leads to an increase in the role of random factors, subjectivity and bias. Therefore, the selection of experts and the formation of these groups advisable not to individual willful decision, and as a result of the ad hoc group to guide the examination.
Activities formation of expert groups may also be referred to expert methods. For the selection of experts used the following methods:
• documentary - Based on analysis of questionnaires and other documents containing more or less objective information about people to whom they belong;
• Pilot - Based on an analysis of experience of experts during the previous examinations;
• voting experts, is a group for the selection and formation expert group;
• self-esteem, which is carried out in relation to the task examination candidates posed group.
Formed thus the expert groups should be tested for the ability to make competent and independent judgments. After the formation, review and approval expert groups are attracted to work on the assessment of the situation developing in the real logistics system. It is necessary to select and invite experts method for estimating the factors specific to the analyzed situation. Known and applied the following methods: direct assessment, including: point; paired comparisons; consistent comparisons; ranking.
further defined procedures for detecting and recording the views of experts involved in expert group. In a particular case can be used procedures:
• one-step questioning;
• multistage survey;
• questionnaire feedback;
• interviews;
• discussions.
then set the method of processing the results of the experts of their expression opinions on the merits of the situation. For this situation, employ a method of processing random variables taken in mathematical statistics. In case of differences of values \u200b\u200bof estimates derived from statistical analysis, the decision is usually made "vote." But remember: the majority is not always right. Therefore obtained on the basis of such a "vote" conclusions must necessarily correlate with common sense.
for expert practices in logistics there is a wider field of application than the estimate of the current situation in various components of the logistics system. We are talking about Expert methods of formation of heuristic strategies for management decisions, ie, a system of heuristic rules making such decisions.
According to these rules must submit the original and predicted the situation as a collection of some of the indicators available to comprehension and analysis (factor representation situations). These factors considered to be the odds, the win probability of loss, the amount of loss and the magnitude risk. These issues must be resolved by expert groups.
Operate factors of the situation may be different. Depending on this distinction internal and external heuristic strategy.
Inner heuristic strategy is what is the consideration of each situation as a single a
by analyzing the intensity values \u200b\u200bof factors that they take in this particular situation. Strategy can be implemented in two variants.
The first option is to compare the values \u200b\u200bof potential determinants of the situation - the values \u200b\u200bof winning and losing, the probability of profit and loss and the possible risk.
second option inside a heuristic strategy is that the internal values \u200b\u200bof these factors compared with the previously designated limit or guideline values. For example, the management strategy should be such that the magnitude of risk does not exceed set limit, but the potential reward is not dipped below a predetermined value.
results of such comparisons, the set values limits, as well as the conclusions from these comparisons and decisions about actions taken on the basis of these conclusions are made on the basis of expert assessments of a person or groups of decision makers.
External heuristic strategy is that the comparison is made of the same characteristics in the two potential situations. This makes it possible to compare the effects of the two possible options and choose the more desirable. However, this strategy leads not only to simplify the process of comparison and choice, but also to its formalization. This is due to the fact that a comparison of similar indicators in other equal terms. For example, the size and timing of payments compared with the volume and timing of payments under a different management options, the amount of risk - a risk value and so minor details, as well as indicators, remain unchanged for the different management strategy options, pre-excluded from the process comparison. To achieve greater objectivity, such a comparison and selection of appropriate expertise to carry out methods.
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